TDP Targets (txdem.co/tdp-targets)
Overall targeting guidance for County Party Coordinated Campaigns, Partner Organizations, and all Campaigns
Texas VAN Targets
This is a working document that explains the current criteria for the Texas VAN Targets, as well as scripts that should be used when working through these lists. These targets are intended to be used as a base throughout the entire cycle and will be continuously updated both with new criteria as well as canvass results.
Have questions about using VAN? Checkout our VAN training and our VAN FAQ.
Don’t know what Targets are and where to find them? Check out this section of our VAN FAQ.http://txdem.co/van-faq
Need additional help? File a VAN Help ticket.
2023-2024 Voter Contact Targets 3
Visualized Overview of Tiers 3
Turnout Targets - Medium Propensity 5
Turnout Targets - Infrequent Voters 5
Ask Party Support Sub Targets 6
Ask Party Support - Lean Democrat 6
Ask Party Support - Lean Republican 6
Ask Party Support - Infrequent Voters 6
Reliable Democratic Voters Sub Targets 7
Reliable Democratic Voters - Mostly Consistent Voters 7
Reliable Democratic Voters - Highly Consistent Voters 7
Context for Why We Snooze our Targets 10
Who is being “Snoozed” and for How Long? 11
2023-2024 Voter Contact Targets
Last updated 01-23-2024
Each of these tiers is mutually exclusive and excludes unregistered voters.
Visualized Overview of Tiers
Turnout Targets
Last updated 01-23-2024
Target Goal
Turn out as many of these folks as possible during GOTV. These voters will overwhelmingly vote Democratic if we can get them to the polls, so we need to earn their trust and demonstrate to them why they should make their voices heard at the ballot box.
Evidence from 2020 suggests that voter contact is most effective when targeted towards this group, especially close to an election. Turnout Targets are specifically formulated to help campaigns avoid contacting voters who are already going to vote.
The number of expected Democratic votes generated per hour of phone banking or block walking is the highest in this group, even after controlling for phone number quality.
Turnout Sub Targets
These groups, when combined, are the equivalent of the Turnout Target in the Voter Contact Targets target grouping.
Turnout Targets - Medium Propensity
Complete VAN Name:
*2023 Voter Contact Targets (Detailed) : Turnout Target - Medium Propensity Voters
This target contains Democratic supporters who have a moderate likelihood of voting in any statewide election, but who are likely to be highly impacted by canvassing efforts. Our findings suggested that GOTV efforts to this group had the highest impact on turnout of any group of targets in the electorate.
Because these voters are highly influenced by GOTV efforts, this group should be critical to election strategies across Texas, up and down the ballot for any statewide election cycle.
Turnout Targets - Infrequent Voters
Complete VAN Name:
*2023 Voter Contact Targets (Detailed) : Turnout Target - Infrequent Voters
This target contains Infrequent voters who we believe will support Democrats if we are able to reach them, especially during GOTV. During even-year general elections, this group is likely to be very responsive to canvassing, and is likely to yield many more voters per hour of phone banking or block walking than canvassing Reliable Democrats.
Typically, if you have limited capacity, this is the turnout target group that should be excluded from canvassing efforts. For low turnout elections (such as special elections, runoffs, or local races) this group should be deprioritized in favor of the Turnout Targets - Medium Propensity group.
Ask Party Support
Last updated 01-23-2024
Target Goal
Determine the partisanship of these voters to either:
expand our GOTV lists
expand our persuasion targets
confirm these Republican partisans to exclude them from future voter contact.
The majority of this group are Democrats, but this group is made up of individuals about whom we are the least confident in terms of which party they support. The TDP Partisanship Score is designed to move these voters into new target groups as we make contact with them and apply survey questions that help us ID them.
Ask Party Support Sub Targets
Ask Party Support - Lean Democrat
Complete VAN Name:
*2023 Voter Contact Targets (Detailed) : Ask Party Support - Lean Dem
This group is made up of a group that we suspect is 50-75% composed of Democrats, but without additional data, we do not have enough data to have a very strong opinion of which party they support.
Ask Party Support - Lean Republican
Complete VAN Name:
*2023 Voter Contact Targets (Detailed) : Ask Party Support - Lean Rep
This group is made up of a group that we suspect is 50-65% composed of Republicans, but without additional data, we do not have enough data to have a very strong opinion of which party they support.
Ask Party Support - Infrequent Voters
Complete VAN Name:
*2023 Voter Contact Targets (Detailed) : Ask Party Support - Infrequent Voters
This group is made up of a group that we suspect leans more Republican than Democrat, and is unlikely to turn out. By identifying their partisanship preferences we can better understand if they are useful turnout targets.
Reliable Democratic Voters
Last updated 01-23-2024
Target Goal
Leverage these voters to amplify campaign messages, fundraise, and recruit for events. We do not need to verify these voter’s partisanship or convince them to turnout in even-year statewide elections: they will vote overwhelmingly for us in November. The Volunteer Recruitment Target should be used first to recruit volunteers but campaigns needing to expand to a larger universe can utilize this Reliable Democratic Voters Target.
This group is fundamental to low salience elections, like special elections, run-offs, primaries and municipal elections. In these races, this target group should constitute much of the GOTV universe. In high salience elections, like presidential and midterm elections, these voters should not be the primary focus of the GOTV universe.
We recommend that canvassing and phone banking efforts prioritize our Turnout Targets before the Reliable Democratic Voters for even year, general elections. These voters tend to have well-understood and stable partisanship, who are unlikely to be impacted significantly by GOTV efforts in even-year, statewide elections.
Complete VAN Name:
*2023 Voter Contact Targets : Reliable Democratic Voters - All
VAN Tag Name (in Quick Lookup): DemVoters
Reliable Democratic Voters Sub Targets
Reliable Democratic Voters - Mostly Consistent Voters
Complete VAN Name:
*2023 Voter Contact Targets (Detailed) : Ask Party Support - Mostly Consistent Voters
VAN Tag Name (in Quick Lookup):
ReliableDemHigh
This group is the subset of our Reliable Democratic Voters who have a 60-80% chance of voting in a Presidential election, but who are our priority turnout universe for low salience elections.
During GOTV in a presidential election, this group should be prioritized below our Turnout Targets, but above the Reliable Democratic Voters - Highly Consistent Voters.
During GOTV in a lower salience election, this group should absolutely be included in our GOTV universe.
Reliable Democratic Voters - Consistent Democratic Voters
Reliable Democratic Voters - Highly Consistent Voters
Complete VAN Name:
*2023 Voter Contact Targets (Detailed) : Ask Party Support - Highly Consistent Voters
VAN Tag Name (in Quick Lookup):
CDV
This group represents those voters who are over 80% likely to vote in a Presidential election and who are most likely to vote in lower turnout elections.
Spanish Language Target
Last updated 01-26-2024
Target Goal
Reach voters who only speak Spanish. A considerable number of voters in Texas only speak Spanish or prefer to use Spanish when speaking with volunteers.
Inclusion Criteria
Voters who have previously been marked as "Spanish" by canvass result, survey question, or activist code
Voters with a high "speak Spanish at home" score (Spanish score > 65).
Complete VAN Name:
Volunteer : 2024 Spanish Targets - Spanish Language Preference
VAN Tag Name (in Quick Lookup): Spanish
Volunteer
Last updated 01-26-2024
Target Goal
Reach voters with a high propensity to volunteer for campaigns. These voters have a modeled volunteer score based on their past volunteer activity, survey responses, and partisanship.
Inclusion Criteria
Current criteria includes one of the following:
Has volunteered since 01-01-2020
Has a volunteer survey response
Has a volunteer activist code
Has a volunteer score above 95
And is not
Suppressed
Snoozed
A likely Republican
Complete VAN Name:
Volunteer : 2024 Volunteer Targets - Likely Volunteers
VAN Tag Name (in Quick Lookup): LikelyVol
VBM Program Targets
Application Prime
Last updated 01/17/24
Target Goal
Contact voters who will receive a prefilled Mail Ballot Request Form in the mail from TDP before the form is delivered. Reaching out to “Prime” targets ahead of delivery prepares them to receive the mailing and ensures they do not inadvertently discard the form.
Complete VAN Name:
*2024 Vote By Mail: VBM App Prime - Primary
*2024 Vote By Mail: VBM App Recipients - Primary (Note: After apps have been delivered we change the name of this target to reflect that fact but leave it active so that partners have the ability to easily find the full list of sent applications)
Inclusion Criteria
Anyone who will be sent a Mail Ballot Request Form by the TDP’s 2024 Primary Vote-by-Mail Program.
Based on a March 2022 primary experiment, we picked out a universe with a high-rejection environment in mind:
We tried to maximize the number of Democrats voting by mail who would otherwise not vote.
We tried to minimize the number of Democrats voting by mail who would otherwise vote in person.
Application Chase
Live in VAN 02/10/24
Target Goal
Contact voters who have received a prefilled Mail Ballot Request Form in the mail from TDP but have not yet returned it. Reaching out to “Chase” targets after their request form is delivered can help remind them to complete and return the form and ensure they receive a mail ballot for the Democratic Primary.
Complete VAN Name:
*2024 Vote By Mail: VBM App Chase - Primary
Inclusion Criteria
Anyone who received a Mail Ballot Request Form from the TDP’s 2024 Vote-by-Mail Program, EXCLUDING:
anyone who has returned the Request Form OR
anyone who has since responded that they are a Republican OR
anyone who has reported moving from Texas.
Ballot Chase
Live in VAN 09/01/24
Target Goal
Contact voters who have returned a prefilled Mail Ballot Request Form. Reaching out to “Ballot Chase” targets after their application has been received by their local elections office can help remind them to complete and return the ballot when it arrives.
Complete VAN Name:
*2024 Vote By Mail: VBM Ballot Chase - General
VAN Tag Name (in Quick Lookup):
VBM BallotChase
Inclusion Criteria
Anyone who has been tracked by the postal service to have returned their application and has been received by the respective county clerk office AND
Anyone who we assume to have an annual VBM ballot
Target “Snoozing”
Last Updated: 01/23/2024; Note: Snoozing is not applied during primary elections. The information below will apply to Targets in the 2024 General Election.
Context for Why We Snooze our Targets
In order to avoid duplicating voter contact efforts - which annoys those being canvassed and is inefficient from a campaign perspective - our targets include logic that temporarily removes voters that have recently been contacted by any campaign, county party, or entity with VAN in TX, even if that contact is not visible in your committee.
These voters are “snoozed” in targets across the state so that campaigns can focus on other voters that we have not yet reached. For example, if an organizer from a State House race speaks to an individual, they will be “snoozed” for all VAN users.
Please note that “snoozing” is turned off during primaries and greatly reduced in duration in the month leading up to an election, and ultimately turned off in the final weeks of GOTV.
Who is being “Snoozed” and for How Long?
These rules are subject to change:
We temporarily snooze recently contacted voters (“snooze”) to avoid multiple campaigns reaching out to the same person at the same time, so that instead we are making sure we are reaching as many voters as possible.
Please note: these snoozes will become drastically shorter during GOTV before a general election. The reason these snoozes exist is to ensure our efforts are focused on those who have not recently heard from us.
Attempts Where Voter “Refused”
Voters marked “refused” via phone or in-person contact are snoozed for 28 days.
Voters Who Are Successfully Contacted
Voters who report either Partisanship Affiliation (“Will you vote for Democrats up and down the ballot”) or Candidate Support (“Will you support Beto for Governor?”) will be snoozed for 7 days if reached by phone or in person.
All voters included in this grouping received a field ID, allowing us to update their score(s) accordingly, as well as put them in the appropriate target.